This post is an update from our January 12 post: https://www.hedgefundtips.com/earnings-still-strong-different-from-2008-2000-so-far/
The new data is as of 1/17/2019 close. While the estimates have come down $.35 for Q4 2018, $.49 for Q1 2019, $.35 for Q2 2019, $.31 for Q3 2019, and $.65 for Q4 2019, the basic premise below still holds for now:
The 20 years of quarterly earnings history below are compliments of Howard Silverblatt – S&P Dow Jones Indices Senior Index Analyst. I have bolded those periods (2000 & 2007) where there was an abrupt drop in earnings (which portended a steep market correction). In 2007 we had fair warning of what was to come from the big drop in earnings in Q4 2007. Similarly we had fair warning in Q4 2000. While the Nasdaq peak was in March 2000, the S&P held up until Oct 2000 before subsequently dropping >50%. In both 2000 and 2007 the “tell” was in the earnings drop which came ahead of the major drop in the indices. The “tell” in 2000 was the 33% sequential drop in earnings from Q3 to Q4 2000. The “tell” in 2007 was the 30.75% sequential drop in earnings from Q2 to Q3 2007, followed by another sequential drop of 48.38% from Q3 to Q4 2007. We are not seeing anything like that at present. While estimates have come down a bit, we are not seeing the type of drops that would foretell major carnage in the markets – at present. We’ll know a lot more in a few weeks as more companies report and give guidance, but early indications are solid with ~11% of the S&P reporting so far.
| QUARTER | OPERATING | AS REPORTED | |
| END | EARNINGS | EARNINGS | |
| PRICE | PER SHR | PER SHR | |
| (ests are | (ests are | ||
| bottom up) | bottom up | ||
| ESTIMATES | |||
| 12/31/2019 | $44.71 | $40.84 | |
| 9/30/2019 | $43.90 | $40.11 | |
| 6/30/2019 | $42.02 | $37.70 | |
| 3/31/2019 | $38.98 | $34.67 | |
| 12/31/2018 (13.4%) | 2506.85 | $40.32 | $36.07 |
| ACTUALS | |||
| 9/30/2018 | 2913.98 | $41.38 | $36.36 |
| 6/30/2018 | 2718.37 | $38.65 | $34.05 |
| 3/31/2018 | 2640.87 | $36.54 | $33.02 |
| 12/31/2017 | 2673.61 | $33.85 | $26.96 |
| 9/30/2017 | 2519.36 | $31.33 | $28.45 |
| 6/30/2017 | 2423.41 | $30.51 | $27.01 |
| 3/31/2017 | 2362.72 | $28.82 | $27.46 |
| 12/31/2016 | 2238.83 | $27.90 | $24.16 |
| 9/30/2016 | 2168.27 | $28.69 | $25.39 |
| 6/30/2016 | 2098.86 | $25.70 | $23.28 |
| 3/31/2016 | 2059.74 | $23.97 | $21.72 |
| 12/31/2015 | 2043.94 | $23.06 | $18.70 |
| 9/30/2015 | 1920.03 | $25.44 | $23.22 |
| 6/30/2015 | 2063.11 | $26.14 | $22.80 |
| 3/31/2015 | 2067.89 | $25.81 | $21.81 |
| 12/31/2014 | 2058.90 | $26.75 | $22.83 |
| 9/30/2014 | 1972.29 | $29.60 | $27.47 |
| 6/30/2014 | 1960.23 | $29.34 | $27.14 |
| 3/31/2014 | 1872.34 | $27.32 | $24.87 |
| 12/31/2013 | 1848.36 | $28.25 | $26.48 |
| 9/30/2013 | 1681.55 | $26.92 | $24.63 |
| 6/30/2013 | 1606.28 | $26.36 | $24.87 |
| 3/31/2013 | 1569.19 | $25.77 | $24.22 |
| 12/31/2012 | 1426.19 | $23.15 | $20.65 |
| 9/30/2012 | 1440.67 | $24.00 | $21.21 |
| 6/30/2012 | 1362.16 | $25.43 | $21.62 |
| 3/31/2012 | 1408.47 | $24.24 | $23.03 |
| 12/31/2011 | 1257.60 | $23.73 | $20.64 |
| 9/30/2011 | 1131.42 | $25.29 | $22.63 |
| 6/30/2011 | 1320.64 | $24.86 | $22.24 |
| 3/31/2011 | 1325.83 | $22.56 | $21.44 |
| 12/31/2010 | 1257.64 | $21.93 | $20.67 |
| 9/30/2010 | 1141.20 | $21.56 | $19.52 |
| 6/30/2010 | 1030.71 | $20.90 | $19.68 |
| 3/31/2010 | 1169.43 | $19.38 | $17.48 |
| 12/31/2009 | 1115.10 | $17.16 | $15.18 |
| 9/30/2009 | 1057.08 | $15.78 | $14.76 |
| 6/30/2009 | 919.32 | $13.81 | $13.51 |
| 3/31/2009 | 797.87 | $10.11 | $7.52 |
| 12/31/2008 | 903.25 | -$0.09 | -$23.25 |
| 9/30/2008 | 1166.36 | $15.96 | $9.73 |
| 6/30/2008 | 1280.00 | $17.02 | $12.86 |
| 3/31/2008 | 1322.70 | $16.62 | $15.54 |
| 12/31/2007 | 1468.36 | $15.22 | $7.82 |
| 9/30/2007 | 1526.75 | $20.87 | $15.15 |
| 6/30/2007 | 1503.35 | $24.06 | $21.88 |
| 3/31/2007 | 1420.86 | $22.39 | $21.33 |
| 12/31/2006 | 1418.30 | $21.99 | $20.24 |
| 9/30/2006 | 1335.85 | $23.03 | $21.47 |
| 6/30/2006 | 1270.20 | $21.95 | $20.11 |
| 3/31/2006 | 1294.83 | $20.75 | $19.69 |
| 12/31/2005 | 1248.29 | $20.19 | $17.30 |
| 9/30/2005 | 1228.81 | $18.84 | $17.39 |
| 6/30/2005 | 1191.33 | $19.42 | $18.29 |
| 3/31/2005 | 1180.59 | $18.00 | $16.95 |
| 12/31/2004 | 1211.92 | $17.95 | $13.94 |
| 9/30/2004 | 1114.58 | $16.88 | $14.18 |
| 6/30/2004 | 1140.84 | $16.98 | $15.25 |
| 3/31/2004 | 1126.21 | $15.87 | $15.18 |
| 12/31/2003 | 1111.92 | $14.88 | $13.16 |
| 9/30/2003 | 995.97 | $14.41 | $12.56 |
| 6/30/2003 | 974.50 | $12.92 | $11.10 |
| 3/31/2003 | 848.18 | $12.48 | $11.92 |
| 12/31/2002 | 879.82 | $11.94 | $3.00 |
| 9/30/2002 | 815.28 | $11.61 | $8.53 |
| 6/30/2002 | 989.81 | $11.64 | $6.87 |
| 3/31/2002 | 1147.39 | $10.85 | $9.19 |
| 12/31/2001 | 1148.08 | $9.94 | $5.45 |
| 9/30/2001 | 1040.94 | $9.16 | $5.23 |
| 6/30/2001 | 1224.38 | $9.02 | $4.83 |
| 3/31/2001 | 1160.33 | $10.73 | $9.18 |
| 12/31/2000 | 1320.28 | $13.11 | $9.07 |
| 9/30/2000 | 1436.51 | $14.17 | $13.71 |
| 6/30/2000 | 1454.60 | $14.88 | $13.48 |
| 3/31/2000 | 1498.58 | $13.97 | $13.74 |
| 12/31/1999 | 1469.25 | $13.77 | $12.77 |
| 9/30/1999 | 1282.71 | $12.97 | $11.93 |
| 6/30/1999 | 1372.71 | $13.21 | $12.51 |
| 3/31/1999 | 1286.37 | $11.73 | $10.96 |
| 12/31/1998 | 1229.23 | $11.47 | $8.56 |
| 9/30/1998 | 1017.01 | $10.45 | $8.99 |
