In the spreadsheet above I have tracked the earnings estimates for the Exploration & Production Sector (XOP). I have columns for what the 2020 estimates were: 2/11/2020 and today.
The column under the date 4/11/2020 has a letter that represents the movement in 2020 earnings estimates since the most recent print (2/11/2020). “U” means 2020 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2020 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2020 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock. You can see how it has come up or come down in recent weeks.
What this table is telling us so far is that estimates for the sector have collapsed. More estimates came DOWN for 2020 in the past 60 days than went UP – 30:0 DOWN:UP ratio.
The cumulative 2020 earnings power of the group dropped -90.96% in the last 60 days. This may prove to be the nadir with the advent of the OPEC+ cuts that were announced yesterday.
