Key Market Outlook(s) and Pick(s)
I joined Jared Blikre and Sydnee Fried on Yahoo! Finance to discuss past picks and current stock picks. Thanks to Jared, Sydnee, and Taylor (Smith) Clothier for having me on:
Watch full show in HD directly on Yahoo! Finance
Last week, I joined David Lin on his show “The David Lin Report” to discuss investment implications following Trump’s inauguration, market sentiment, and stock picks. Thanks to David for having me on. My conversations with David tend to go viral and get a lot of attention. This one’s no different! Watch here to see why:
This morning I joined Ade Nurul Safrina Nasution on CNBC “Closing Bell” Indonesia to discuss President Trumps policies, Jobs, USD, Market Outlook, Economy, Emerging Markets, China, Tariffs, Crypto, Energy, Manufacturing and more. You can find it here:
On Tuesday, I joined Sean Callebs on CGTN America to discuss the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk, Trump and more. Thanks to Sean and Kamelia Kilawan for having me on:
Bank of America Fund Manager Survey Update
On Tuesday, we put out a summary of the monthly Bank of America “Global Fund Manager Survey.” This month they surveyed institutional managers with ~$513B AUM:
January 2025 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)
Here were the 5 key points:
1) Most bullish catalyst for 2025 remains “China growth acceleration:”
2) Managers are dramatically underweight Materials and Energy:
3) 2nd largest monthly rotation into EU stocks in the past 25 years:
4) Rotation into Healthcare and Commodities starting in 2025:
5) Macro outlook still has plenty of room to improve:
Estee Lauder Update
Each week we try to cover 1-2 companies we have discussed in previous podcast|videocast(s) and/or own for clients (including personally).
Key Catalyst: New CEO Stephane de La Faverie
5 Key Points From Estee Lauder’s Q1 2025 Earnings Call
1) Beat Earnings Expectations: Adjusted EPS increased to $0.14, exceeding last year’s $0.11 and the high end of the outlook range by $0.04.
2) Improved Operational Efficiency: Gross margin improved by 310 basis points, supported by better inventory alignment and reduced obsolescence charges. Operating income rose by 33% to $144 million, with operating margin expanding 120 basis points to 4.3%.
3) Commitment to High-Growth Channels: Increased exposure to high-growth channels (Amazon Premium Beauty store, TikTok Shop).
4) China Stimulus Opportunity: New economic stimulus measures present medium to long-term potential for stabilization, and then ultimately growth in prestige beauty
5) Strategic Restructuring: Plans under the previously communicated PRGP are on track and advancing well, expected to deliver $1.1 to $1.4 billion of incremental operating profits by 2026.
General Market
The CNN “Fear and Greed” ticked up from 29 last week to 43 this week. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)
The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) flat-lined to 70.21% this week from 65.38% equity exposure last week.
Our podcast|videocast will be out sometime on Thursday or Friday. We have a lot of great data to cover this week. Each week, we have a segment called “Ask Me Anything (AMA)” where we answer questions sent in by our audience. If you have a question for this week’s episode, please send it in at the contact form here.
Congratulations to all of the new clients that came in during our 2024 and Q1 2025 raises. You could not be better positioned for what we believe will be a highly rewarding year in 2025. This view is based on much of the data we have shared in recent weeks on our podcast|videocast(s), as well as our proprietary methods of expressing and executing upon those views on your behalf.
*We are pleased to share that our Q1 2025 raise is officially closed.
Congratulations to all of you I had the pleasure of speaking with and on-boarding in the last two weeks – after we opened up. We have begun deploying capital on your behalf.
Larger accounts $5-10M+ can access bespoke service at their preference here.
*Opinion, Not Advice. See Terms
