I focus on the AAII sentiment indicator when it is at true extremes. This week, the bullish sentiment moved up marginally from to 33% to 35%. This is a neutral rating (not overly optimistic or at all pessimistic). I would look to see it closer to 40 before I considered getting aggressively short (and it would have to be confirmed by multiple other factors at that point).
The Bearish Percent creeped up to 28% from 27% which is still pretty complacent until we see a move to the high 30s/low 40s. So while there is no euphoria on the side of the bulls, there is also very little fear and still a decent amount of complacency– hence NO MAN’S land part Quatre!
Here are the last few weeks of the “No Man’s Land” theme:
