In the spreadsheet above I have tracked the earnings estimates for the Basic Materials Sector ETF (XLB). I have columns for what the 2019 and 2020 estimates were: 4/3/2019, 5/3/2019 and today 7/8/2019. The column under the date 7/8/2019 has a letter that represents the movement in 2019 earnings estimates since the most recent print (5/3/2019). “U” means 2019 estimates are UP in the last 66 days. “D” means 2019 estimates are DOWN in the last 66 days. “S” means 2019 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 66 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock. You can see how it has come up or come down in recent weeks.
What this table is telling us so far is that estimates have remained relatively stable. More estimates came DOWN for 2019 in the past 30 days than went UP 15:6 DOWN:UP ratio. The rest remained the same.
The cumulative 2019 earnings power of the group (ex – DD/DOW – due to restructuring) declined modestly -1.12% in the last 66 days.
