Category: Commentary

The June survey covered 222 fund managers with $588 billion under management. Continue reading “July 2023 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)”

For many months we have been saying (in our weekly podcast|videocast) that June, July and August would be the months we would see headline inflation collapse to the mid to low 3% levels.  This estimation was realized this week for the June numbers.  We not only hit a “3 handle”, but were on the CUSP of a “2 handle!” Continue reading ““Inflation Relaxation” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

There’s an old maxim, “the secret to happiness is low expectations.”  This saying could not apply more directly than to what we are seeing coming into the Q2 earnings season. Continue reading ““The Secret To Happiness” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Second Half Playbook

On Friday, I joined Seana Smith on Yahoo! Finance. Thanks to Sarah Smith and Seana for having me on the show.  Watch this clip to get the playbook for the next 6 months: Continue reading ““Burdened By The Facts” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” became the country star’s first No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 songs chart dated March 18, 2023.  The song chronicles an “on again, off again” relationship that reminds me of the stop and start nature of the “China Trade” recovery since the lows in October: Continue reading ““Somethin’s Tellin’ Me This Ain’t Over Yet” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Those expecting a “dovish” skip at the Fed meeting may have been surprised by an increase in the expected terminal rate presented in the dot plot yesterday: Continue reading ““When Doves Cry” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The June survey covered 285 fund managers with $764 billion under management. Continue reading “June 2023 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)”

It was very lonely being a bull last fall when the S&P 500 was in the 3600s to 3700s.  A few smart hosts kept an open mind (at those subdued levels) when we were pounding the table to buy equities (see circled dates below).
Continue reading ““The One That Got Away” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The biggest news out on Wednesday was two FOMC members making their case for no hike in June.  This language and timing is no accident. After 500bps of 10 consecutive hikes the effective Fed Funds rate is at 5.08%: Continue reading ““Skip or Flip” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

When I was thinking about writing this week, the song, “The Long Run” immediately came to mind.  The Eagles released it in 1979.  According to Henley, the title track was in part a response to press articles that said they were “passé” as disco was then dominant and punk emerging, which inspired lines such as “Who is gonna make it/ We’ll find out in the long run.” (wikipedia) Continue reading ““The Long Run” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”