Category: Commentary

The October survey covered 272 fund managers with $790 billion under management. Continue reading “November 2022 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)”

While it feels like it has been a year of persistent Murphy’s Law for the Stock Market, sometimes it makes sense to just take a step back and look at the facts.  What could go wrong, did go wrong (War, Geopolitics, Hurricanes, Supply Chains, Government/Policy actions, regional pandemic persistence, Fed Policy errors) but we may be coming to the tail end of that narrative:

Continue reading ““The Long Run” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Yesterday I joined Seana Smith, Dave Briggs and Rachelle Akuffo In-Studio at Yahoo! Finance.  Thanks to Taylor Clothier and Sydnee Fried for having me on: Continue reading “Double-talk Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

On Monday morning, we woke up to an abrupt market response to Xi Jinping’s new top leadership appointments.  Global participants had hoped for some balance in the Standing Committee appointments and when it was not forthcoming, the Hang Seng index plummeted to the lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

It was 5am in NYC, but 5pm in Beijing and I’m sure there were many traders (Chinese and otherwise) following Country Legend Alan Jackson’s mantra “It’s Five O’ Clock Somewhere”: Continue reading ““It’s Five O’Clock Somewhere” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The good news is that sentiment and positioning continues to persist at capitulation levels.  The bad news is that the key levers to cause a “buyers panic” into the market have not yet been activated.  However, that may change soon:
Continue reading ““What to Watch Now” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The October survey covered 371 managers with $1.1 Trillion in assets under management.
Continue reading “October 2022 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)”

For the past six weeks every movement of the stock market has been predicated on what the Fed had to say about their future outlook/actions.  Tomorrow we start earnings season in earnest with reports from the Big Banks (JPM, WFC, C, MS).  Early this morning I was on CNBC Closing Bell (Indonesia) to discuss the setup going into earnings.

Continue reading “The “Fed Talk” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

This week I joined Will Koulouris on CNBC Street Signs Asia to discuss US market outlook, and more importantly whether I still liked Alibaba.  Thanks to Gabrielle See, Francis Xavier and Will for having me on.  The answer may surprise you: Continue reading “Give Up on China? Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

In last week’s note, we laid out our case as to why a walk-back might be in the cards – as it relates to the Fed’s ultra-hawkish stance:

As Hawkish As It Gets. Walk-Back On The Way?

Continue reading “3 down, 1 to go Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Following the Pandemic Crash and recovery, I gave Chairman Powell and Secretary Mnuchin a lot of credit for saving the world from a global depression by acting quickly and forcefully.  As I take a look back, I think Mnuchin deserves all of the credit.  Here’s why: Continue reading “As Hawkish As It Gets. Walk-Back On The Way?”