Category: Commentary

While no one was excited about the terminal rate being pushed to 5.1% (from 4.6%) in the Fed’s dot plot yesterday, the market doesn’t believe it anyway.  The 2-year treasury yield closed at 4.23% – now below the effective Fed Funds rate of 4.25-4.50%.  The first move in equities (following an FOMC decision) is often the wrong move, so we’ll see how things play out in coming sessions – after the dust settles… Continue reading ““Take a Brea(d)th” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The December survey covered 281 fund managers with $728 billion under management.
Continue reading “December 2022 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)”

On Wednesday, I joined Seana Smith and Dave Briggs on Yahoo! Finance to discuss the low volume (plus tax-loss selling) buyers’ strike taking place in the market this week.  Thanks to Taylor Clothier, Sydnee Fried, Seana and Dave for having me on.  How does the strike get resolved?  Watch here: Continue reading ““Buyers’ Strike” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell shifted his messaging just enough to cancel the Grinch from stealing Christmas this year.  In his prepared speech on Wednesday he made the following statements which eased market participants’ jittery sentiment over the past few days: Continue reading “The “Grinch Has Been Cancelled” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

On Tuesday, I joined Kristen Scholer on Cheddar News live from the NYSE.  Thanks to Kristen and Ally Thompson for having me on.  In this segment we discussed a number of important topics with the KEY being what Chair Powell’s hero (former Fed Chairman Paul Volker) did RIGHT in October 1982 that Chair Powell has yet to do in 2022 (but could in coming weeks (or months)):

Watch in HD directly on Cheddar

Continue reading ““Flat Footed” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

We were a minority voice in September and October expecting some relief in equity markets through year end.  In our podcast|videocast we covered this chart (below) which shows that by the time earnings actually decline to their lowest, the stock market has often ALREADY RECOVERED to (or near) NEW HIGHS:
Continue reading “The “Pain Trade” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The October survey covered 272 fund managers with $790 billion under management. Continue reading “November 2022 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)”

While it feels like it has been a year of persistent Murphy’s Law for the Stock Market, sometimes it makes sense to just take a step back and look at the facts.  What could go wrong, did go wrong (War, Geopolitics, Hurricanes, Supply Chains, Government/Policy actions, regional pandemic persistence, Fed Policy errors) but we may be coming to the tail end of that narrative:

Continue reading ““The Long Run” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Yesterday I joined Seana Smith, Dave Briggs and Rachelle Akuffo In-Studio at Yahoo! Finance.  Thanks to Taylor Clothier and Sydnee Fried for having me on: Continue reading “Double-talk Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

On Monday morning, we woke up to an abrupt market response to Xi Jinping’s new top leadership appointments.  Global participants had hoped for some balance in the Standing Committee appointments and when it was not forthcoming, the Hang Seng index plummeted to the lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

It was 5am in NYC, but 5pm in Beijing and I’m sure there were many traders (Chinese and otherwise) following Country Legend Alan Jackson’s mantra “It’s Five O’ Clock Somewhere”: Continue reading ““It’s Five O’Clock Somewhere” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”