Country Star, Kenny Chesney wrote a hit song last year entitled, “Everything’s Gonna Be Alright.” With everyone now focused on the rear view mirror data – it hardly seems like an appropriate theme…
Category: Commentary
The Taylor Swift, “Shake It Off” Market…(AAII Sentiment Survey)
On Monday, my wife waited on the special mobile queue to score 4 tickets for Taylor Swift’s concert in Massachusetts this August. She finally got through many hours later and was elated for us to pay more than the cost of my first car for each of the four tickets! But, our 5 & 7 year old daughters will never forget it, so why not? And, we’ll catch a Yankees v. Red Socks game at Fenway Park – so everyone wins (even though I’m a Mets fan)… Continue reading “The Taylor Swift, “Shake It Off” Market…(AAII Sentiment Survey)”
BAML Global Fund Manager Survey: Slippery When Wet
I have posted the October BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) global fund manager survey above. Hat tip to Paul Hickey at Bespoke and Jeroen Blokland for tweeting it out this morning. Continue reading “BAML Global Fund Manager Survey: Slippery When Wet”
Snake OIL? How Portfolio Managers View Exploration & Production Stocks…
I was doing my normal stock, earnings and sector research over the weekend and I came across this Exploration and Production Sector chart XOP (above). The 2007-2009 financial crisis was a “once in a generation” collapse similar to 1973-1974 and prior to that the Great Depression. The implication of this sector trading at 2009 levels today – is that Oil and Gas Exploration and Production stocks are “snake oil” as defined by Dictionary.com as: a product of little real worth or value that is promoted as the solution to a problem. Continue reading “Snake OIL? How Portfolio Managers View Exploration & Production Stocks…”
Frank & Jerome (The Chairmen) agree: The Best is Yet to Come (AAII Sentiment Results)
Ol’ blue eyes recorded the song “The Best is Yet to Come” in 1964. What is interesting about both the song and the year – is that the expansion had been going for 11 years at that point (from 1953). How much further could it run? Continue reading “Frank & Jerome (The Chairmen) agree: The Best is Yet to Come (AAII Sentiment Results)”
Your Rich Uncle is Back From Vacation…
The Fed has done an about face in the last few months, not only cutting 50bps – with more to come, stopping Quantitative Tightening – but now, increasing the balance sheet by ~$200B in the past 35 days (to stabilize the overnight rate). Continue reading “Your Rich Uncle is Back From Vacation…”
Relax, we got a ~40bps rate cut?
In November 2018, the Council on Foreign Relations did an article that attempted to quantify the impact of the Fed’s balance sheet runoff (Quantitative Tightening): https://www.cfr.org/blog/fed-tightening-more-it-realizes Continue reading “Relax, we got a ~40bps rate cut?”
Sunday Inspiration…
On the first post of this blog , in January of this year, I gave credit to Jim Rohn – who was a mentor to me in my early 20’s. His teachings had an irreversible positive impact on my life and are largely responsible for much of what I’ve been able to do. Continue reading “Sunday Inspiration…”
No one is writing about this: Perspective…
On the heels of my post earlier today and the concept of consolidation followed by expansion – both in earnings and price, I decided to look at it from a long term perspective.
Continue reading “No one is writing about this: Perspective…”
China?
Source: Finviz
This is not the price action I would expect to see in Soybeans, Hogs, and Gas given all of negativity today around China. Is something brewing?