Category: Commentary

Global Fund Manager Survey (BAML): Bullish or Bearish?

Data Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

This morning, the monthly Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Managers Survey was published.  The key point that is being focused on is the fact that cash levels have dropped dramatically in the past 30 days (from 5% to 4.2%).  Additionally, equity positioning jumped 20% – to 21% overweight.  This was a one year high. Continue reading “Global Fund Manager Survey (BAML): Bullish or Bearish?”

The Katy Perry “Hot ‘N Cold” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)

In last week’s note on stock market sentiment, we laid out a bullish case over the next 6 months, and simultaneously cautioned against possible mini-shakeouts in the short term designed to take out the late money – that has just joined the party off of the August lows (in recent days/weeks). Continue reading “The Katy Perry “Hot ‘N Cold” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)”

The “Three Tenors” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

“O Sole Mio” was composed by Eduardo Di Capua in Odessa during April 1898.  He later sold the rights of the song to the Bideri publishing house for 25 lire.  It has had many renderings and iterations, but recently is most widely known for its performance by the Three Tenors; Plácido Domingo, José Carreras and Luciano Pavarotti. Continue reading “The “Three Tenors” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The Kenny Chesney “Everything’s Gonna Be Alright” Stock Market: (AAII Sentiment Survey)

Country Star, Kenny Chesney wrote a hit song last year entitled, “Everything’s Gonna Be Alright.”  With everyone now focused on the rear view mirror data – it hardly seems like an appropriate theme…

Continue reading “The Kenny Chesney “Everything’s Gonna Be Alright” Stock Market: (AAII Sentiment Survey)”

The Taylor Swift, “Shake It Off” Market…(AAII Sentiment Survey)

On Monday, my wife waited on the special mobile queue to score 4 tickets for Taylor Swift’s concert in Massachusetts this August.  She finally got through many hours later and was elated for us to pay more than the cost of my first car for each of the four tickets!  But, our 5 & 7 year old daughters will never forget it, so why not?  And, we’ll catch a Yankees v. Red Socks game at Fenway Park – so everyone wins (even though I’m a Mets fan)… Continue reading “The Taylor Swift, “Shake It Off” Market…(AAII Sentiment Survey)”

Snake OIL? How Portfolio Managers View Exploration & Production Stocks…

I was doing my normal stock, earnings and sector research over the weekend and I came across this Exploration and Production Sector chart XOP (above).  The 2007-2009 financial crisis was a “once in a generation” collapse similar to 1973-1974 and prior to that the Great Depression.  The implication of this sector trading at 2009 levels today – is that Oil and Gas Exploration and Production stocks are “snake oil” as defined by Dictionary.com as: a product of little real worth or value that is promoted as the solution to a problem. Continue reading “Snake OIL? How Portfolio Managers View Exploration & Production Stocks…”

Frank & Jerome (The Chairmen) agree: The Best is Yet to Come (AAII Sentiment Results)

Ol’ blue eyes recorded the song “The Best is Yet to Come” in 1964.  What is interesting about both the song and the year – is that the expansion had been going for 11 years at that point (from 1953).  How much further could it run?  Continue reading “Frank & Jerome (The Chairmen) agree: The Best is Yet to Come (AAII Sentiment Results)”