Category: Commentary

Markets are clearly concerned about the U.S. budget deficit and war spending.  Since the war began, the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed $76.8 billion in assistance to Ukraine.  The Administration is now drafting a bill for another $100 billion for Israel and the Ukraine. Continue reading ““The Only Chart That Matters” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Then God said, “Let there be light,” and there was light. And God saw that the light was good. Then he separated the light from the darkness. God called the light “day” and the darkness “night.” And evening passed and morning came, marking the first day.

With rates steadying and turning, we believe a new day has begun… Continue reading ““Let There Be Light” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

I know in NYC (Wall Street) the last few weeks feels like the end of the world, but the picture above tells a different story… Continue reading “End of the World? Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

I wouldn’t make that bet.  Despite 10 year yields breaking above the dreaded 4.50% level, history shows – at least 11x since 1960 that many of the “breakouts” in yields wind up actually being “fake outs” in yields.  Don’t buy the hype… Continue reading ““Is it really different this time?” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Okay, okay I know I’m going to get some pushback for choosing Christina Aguilera’s hit song for the article of the week, but hear me out… Continue reading ““What a Girl Wants” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Yesterday the inflation numbers came out.  The good news is it did not change expectations for a pause in Fed hikes next week.  November expectations – while recently as high as ~50% – are now showing a more moderate 36% probability: Continue reading ““Inflate it Away” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

So what’s ailing the market?  On August 18, there were big headlines that a “major manager” had just put a huge short on bonds – expecting yields to blow out.  On our podcast|videocast that day we said that this particular hedge fund manager probably called the bottom in bonds and the top in rates by “shorting in the hole” one of the most crowded trades in history. Continue reading ““Steady As She Goes” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

In our July 27, 2023 weekly note and podcast|videocast we talked about a 3-5% pullback in the month of August.  We also said we expected these dips would be BOUGHT due to the fact that most managers under-performed in 1H and were still overweight cash/t-bills and underweight equities (relative to their 20 year history): Continue reading ““So Far, So Good” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”