Category: Sentiment

Earnings are coming in nicely, but there is an overhang on this market – and until resolved, the market is stuck in the mud.  First Republic (FRC) is now a zombie bank that no one wants to take over because they would need to raise a significant amount of equity capital against the upside down assets/write-downs. Continue reading ““Put It Out Of Its Misery” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

“‘Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door’ is a song by American singer-songwriter Bob Dylan, written for the soundtrack of the 1973 film Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid. Released as a single two months after the film’s premiere, it became a worldwide hit, reaching the Top 10 in several countries. The song became one of Dylan’s most popular and most covered post-1960s compositions, spawning covers from Eric Clapton, Guns N’ Roses, Randy Crawford and more.” Wikipedia

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Snatching Defeat From The Jaws of Victory

On Wednesday, the market started up nicely on the back of the better than expected CPI prints:
Continue reading ““Snatching Defeat” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

As you can see in the chart above, there have been no gains for the S&P 500 for 12 months, and there have been no gains in the S&P 500 for 24 months.  It is unchanged!  As the old saying goes, markets can correct in price or in time.  In this case it has been working off its excess post-covid run for two years, while earnings have continued to press forward: Continue reading ““Stuck in the Middle with You” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

“Don’t Stop Believin’” is the second single from Journey’s seventh studio album ‘Escape’ released in 1981. Although the song only reached #9 on Billboard Hot 100 and #62 in the UK Singles chart, the track became a timeless classic.  Today, “Don’t Stop Believin’” can be heard at just about every wedding, high school dance, and Saturday night college bar you can think of. The popularity of “Don’t Stop Believin’” in modern times started in 2007, when the song was used in the iconic final scene of The Sopranos.
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The bad news is, we have a Federal Reserve with no feel for the market or explicit understanding of “lagged effect” of tightening on the economy.  To this point, the Chairman was quoted (in yesterday’s conference) as follows, “I mean the question we were all asking ourselves that first weekend was, ‘How did this happen?‘” (referring to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank).  Save the taxpayers some money and call off the “investigation.”  Everyone already knows how this happened… Continue reading ““How Did This Happen?” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

“Recency bias, or availability bias, is a cognitive error identified in behavioral economics whereby people incorrectly believe that recent events will occur again soon. This tendency is irrational, as it obscures the true or objective probabilities of events occurring, leading people to make poor decisions.” Investopedia
Continue reading “Deja Vu NOT All Over Again – Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

This week I watched the classic film “Barbarians at the Gate” for the first time.  It stars James Garner (of The Great Escape fame) and Peter Riegert (of Animal House fame).  It chronicles the booming 80’s junk bond era when Michael Milken – at Drexel Burnham – was able to raise unlimited amounts of capital for leveraged management buyouts and corporate takeovers.  No company was safe if Milken was involved.
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