Category: Sentiment

The selling we are seeing in recent days is not orderly or natural, it is forced selling from fund liquidations and margin calls.  It will flush through the system and then we can find a bottom and start to recover. Continue reading “The “Forced Seller” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

On Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve issued their FOMC statement and plans for reducing the size of the balance sheet.  I have underlined the key points here:
Continue reading ““Threading the Needle” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Here’s what everyone feels like doing after the last few weeks of market action:

Here’s what it felt like holding most equities over the past week:

@sportsnet Nurse said SEE YA, JAMIE. 💥👋 #nhl #nhlonsn #hockeytiktoks #hockeyhits ♬ original sound – Kate 💥

Take two…

@user1737488226 bad day to be a golf club #onlyinmycalvins #PringlesCanHands #TalkingTree ♬ original sound – user1737488226

In 2017, Country Star Jon Pardi released his hit “Heartache on the Dance Floor.”  It peaked at #3 and #5 on both the Billboard Country Airplay and Hot Country Songs charts respectively. It also reached number 47 on the Hot 100 chart. Continue reading ““Heartache on the Dance Floor” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

If you are wondering when Value Tech, Biotech and China Tech are going to finish their bear markets and roar higher, you need only look at 1 chart (which we referenced in the last couple of weeks). Here it is (originally) and denoted with multiple other takes: Continue reading “The “Magic Chart” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

The theme of this week is “peak everything.”  Peak inflation, peak yields, peak commodities, possibly peak margins, peak growth, peak cash and most importantly peak pessimism… Continue reading “Peak Everything Stock Market? (and Sentiment Results)…”

On August 19, 2014, Taylor Swift released her hit song “Shake it Off.”  It was nominated for three Grammy awards in 2015 and named one of the 10 songs that defined the 2010’s by USA Today.  The key lyrics that relate to the current state of the stock market are as follows: Continue reading “The “Shake it Off” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

On Tuesday, the 2/10 yield curve inverted by -3bps (for a few minutes) and closed with a positive spread +2bps on the day.  There are a number of factors that led to this incident, but one stands out from the crowd. Continue reading “To Invert or Not To Invert? That is the key Stock Market question…”

Wikipedia, “The Noid was an advertising character for Domino’s Pizza created in the 1980s.  Clad in a red, skin-tight, rabbit-eared body suit with a black N inscribed in a white circle on his chest, the Noid was a physical manifestation of all the challenges inherent in getting a pizza delivered in 30 minutes or less.  Though persistent, his efforts were repeatedly thwarted.”
Continue reading “Avoid the Noid – Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

In 1985 Motley Crue released one of its major all-time hits, “Home Sweet Home.”  Last night, when I was thinking about the journey of Alibaba over the last few months, this song came to mind.  The journey has had a few detours, but now it’s on finally on its way back “home” to intrinsic value.

Seeing Alibaba jump ~35% in one day is evidence that the objective business/fundamental analysis was always accurate, it was simply a mercurial government leadership holding the stock back.  With the government now stepping out of the way and letting business flourish once again, we expect this marvelous business to work its way back to intrinsic value over time.  We may hit a few more potholes and speed bumps, but we’re on our way… Continue reading ““Home Sweet Home” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”