This week, bullishness came in at 39.02% which is near an extreme (I look for reads at or above 40 as potential triggers). Bearishness is still at historic lows – coming in at 21.34% (I look for reads below 30). Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Survey Results Out. At/Near Extreme Levels…”
Category: Sentiment
AAII Sentiment Survey Results Out. Back to the Abyss…
Two weeks ago we hit a bullish extreme that was burned through sideways (we are essentially flat over the last 2 weeks on the DOW/SPX – as of this morning – since the bullish extreme was hit): Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Survey Results Out. Back to the Abyss…”
AAII Sentiment Survey results. The pause that refreshes…
Last week we got an extreme read on sentiment which is frequently correlated with market pullbacks:
Warning signs from AAII Sentiment Survey results this morning (out of “No Man’s Land”)
We are now a week later and have gone sideways off the trigger (no pullback yet). The implication is that we either turn soon, or it is going to burn through this extreme in an atypical fashion. Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Survey results. The pause that refreshes…”
Warning signs from AAII Sentiment Survey results this morning (out of “No Man’s Land”)
AAII Sentiment Survey results are out this morning. After four weeks of grinding sideways in “No Man’s Land” Bullishness is now up OVER the 40 level – which usually marks market reversals. Bearishness has collapsed.
In the S&P500 chart above I have noted those dates in the recent past where Sentiment was at similar levels (Bullishness ~40, Bearishness <30). You can follow along with the red circles on the sentiment results below.
Just because these readings correlated with pullbacks in the recent past does not mean they will do so this time. It does however mean we should be paying attention. It is possible we can burn through these elevated readings and go higher, but the odds don’t favor it. As with all indicators, they are to be used as barometers, not crystal balls.
AAII Sentiment Results: NO MAN’S LAND – Part Quatre!
I focus on the AAII sentiment indicator when it is at true extremes. This week, the bullish sentiment moved up marginally from to 33% to 35%. This is a neutral rating (not overly optimistic or at all pessimistic). I would look to see it closer to 40 before I considered getting aggressively short (and it would have to be confirmed by multiple other factors at that point).
The Bearish Percent creeped up to 28% from 27% which is still pretty complacent until we see a move to the high 30s/low 40s. So while there is no euphoria on the side of the bulls, there is also very little fear and still a decent amount of complacency– hence NO MAN’S land part Quatre!
Here are the last few weeks of the “No Man’s Land” theme:
AAII Sentiment Results: NO MAN’S LAND – Part Trois!
I focus on the AAII sentiment indicator when it is at true extremes. This week, the bullish sentiment moved back down to 33% from 37%. This is a neutral rating (not optimistic or excessively pessimistic). The Bearish Percent creeped up to 27% from 23% which is still pretty complacent until we see a move to the high 30s/low 40s. So while there is no euphoria on the side of the bulls, there is also very little fear and still a decent amount of complacency- hence NO MAN’S land part Trois!
The past 3 weeks of “No Man’s Land Parts un-trois” are also reflected in the indices which have basically gone nowhere in the month of March:
Here are the last two editions of “No Man’s Land:”
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AAII Sentiment Results: NO MAN’S LAND – Part Deux!
I generally like to pay attention to the AAII sentiment indicator when it is at true extremes. This week the bullish sentiment moved from 32% back up to 37%. I would be a lot more interested if it got over 40% to get aggressively Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Results: NO MAN’S LAND – Part Deux!”
AAII Sentiment Results: NO MAN’S LAND!
source: AAII
Last week we noted that AAII bullish sentiment had started coming down along with the market and that we would look for a drop to the low 30s/high Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Results: NO MAN’S LAND!”
AAII Sentiment Supplement (85.7% recent accuracy)
As a supplement to this morning’s commentary on this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:
I pulled together this chart (above) that shows its recent efficacy as a barometer for short term turning points. Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Supplement (85.7% recent accuracy)”
AAII Sentiment Coming Down (Update): What’s Next?
Last week we warned that AAII sentiment was getting extreme with Bullishness above 40% and Bearishness collapsing to 20%. This week we are seeing the Bullishness start to come down and Bearishness start to rise as Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Coming Down (Update): What’s Next?”