Category: Sentiment

I know in NYC (Wall Street) the last few weeks feels like the end of the world, but the picture above tells a different story… Continue reading “End of the World? Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

I wouldn’t make that bet.  Despite 10 year yields breaking above the dreaded 4.50% level, history shows – at least 11x since 1960 that many of the “breakouts” in yields wind up actually being “fake outs” in yields.  Don’t buy the hype… Continue reading ““Is it really different this time?” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Okay, okay I know I’m going to get some pushback for choosing Christina Aguilera’s hit song for the article of the week, but hear me out… Continue reading ““What a Girl Wants” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Yesterday the inflation numbers came out.  The good news is it did not change expectations for a pause in Fed hikes next week.  November expectations – while recently as high as ~50% – are now showing a more moderate 36% probability: Continue reading ““Inflate it Away” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

So what’s ailing the market?  On August 18, there were big headlines that a “major manager” had just put a huge short on bonds – expecting yields to blow out.  On our podcast|videocast that day we said that this particular hedge fund manager probably called the bottom in bonds and the top in rates by “shorting in the hole” one of the most crowded trades in history. Continue reading ““Steady As She Goes” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

In our July 27, 2023 weekly note and podcast|videocast we talked about a 3-5% pullback in the month of August.  We also said we expected these dips would be BOUGHT due to the fact that most managers under-performed in 1H and were still overweight cash/t-bills and underweight equities (relative to their 20 year history): Continue reading ““So Far, So Good” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

Now that we’ve had the 5% pullback we anticipated in recent weeks, many pundits are once again prognosticating the “beginning of the end.”  When you dig under the surface however, the clearer story looks like “the end of the beginning” and most stocks are just at the starting gate of major cyclical recoveries. Continue reading ““At The Starting Gate” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”

We don’t know (if that’s it), but in our July 27 note, we put out the following warning:

In our weekly podcast|videocast – we also emphasized the probability of 3-5% pullbacks coming in this normal seasonally weak period – that would be bought by institutions having to play “catch up.”  So now we got it, and we think getting close to the point where we should begin to see some institutional cash step in:

Continue reading “Is that it? Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…”