In the spreadsheet above I have tracked the earnings estimates for the DOW 30 PLUS 8 of the S&P 500 top 30 weights [that are not either included in the DOW 30 or in the top 30 weights of the Nasdaq]. The new 8 companies are at the bottom of the spreadsheet under the heading “EXTRA”. The purpose of this is so we have up to date EPS earnings/revisions for the top 30 weighted stocks in the DOW, S&P500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq.
I have columns for what the 2019 and 2020 estimates (if available) were: 1/21/19, 2/7/19 and today. The column under the date 3/12/19 has a letter that represents the movement in 2019 earnings estimates since the most recent print (2/7/19). “U” means 2019 estimates are UP in the last 33 days. “D” means 2019 estimates are DOWN in the last 33 days. “S” means 2019 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 33 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock. You can see how it has come up or come down in recent weeks.
What this table is telling us so far is that despite the dramatic dislocation in price in December, estimates have remained somewhat stable so far. However, more estimates came DOWN for 2019 in the past 33 days than came up 22:8 ratio. The rest remained the same. We now need to digest the January/Feb gains and then see where estimates are in coming weeks as Q1 earnings begin.
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