I was just going through my normal weekend work. The last two times that “Bullish Percent” got to ZERO for the Transports (sector) were March 2, 2009 (one week before the financial crisis bottom), and Christmas Eve 2018 (the bottom).
It is hard to see how we turn here with all of the pessimism, but that’s usually when something comes around from thin air. What could the catalysts be in coming weeks? We don’t know, but here are some ideas:
- Gilead’s Remdesivir is proven effective in the Phase 3 test and rolled out for mass human use to treat COVID19.
- Russia comes back to the table with OPEC+ and they implement cuts.
- Fed Meeting March 18.
- Global Coordinated Fiscal Stimulus Package Announced.
While all four scenarios seem low probability – looking at the futures down 1000+ points – it is frequently at these points of acute pessimism that something changes in the near term. Time will tell…
