- German manufacturing orders collapsed in February (MarketWatch)
- What to Watch in Friday’s Jobs Report (Barron’s)
- Tesla Deliveries Fall, in Potential Sign of Weaker U.S. Demand (Bloomberg)
- Global stocks stall after Trump’s tariffs block US-China trade deal progress (Business Insider)
- Jamie Dimon’s annual letter is out (JP Morgan)
- Accounting Rule Maker FASB Rejects Proposal on Loan Losses (Wall Street Journal)
- Morgan Stanley downgrades trader favorite Micron to sell, says inventories will pressure margins (CNBC)
AAII Sentiment Results: NO MAN’S LAND – Part Quatre!
I focus on the AAII sentiment indicator when it is at true extremes. This week, the bullish sentiment moved up marginally from to 33% to 35%. This is a neutral rating (not overly optimistic or at all pessimistic). I would look to see it closer to 40 before I considered getting aggressively short (and it would have to be confirmed by multiple other factors at that point).
The Bearish Percent creeped up to 28% from 27% which is still pretty complacent until we see a move to the high 30s/low 40s. So while there is no euphoria on the side of the bulls, there is also very little fear and still a decent amount of complacency– hence NO MAN’S land part Quatre!
Here are the last few weeks of the “No Man’s Land” theme:
Be in the know. 8 key reads for Wednesday…
- Hedge Fund and Insider Trading News: Ken Griffin, Keith Meister, Bodenholm Capital, AQR Capital, Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp. (ANH), Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS), and More (Insider Monkey)
- Weekly mortgage refinances spike 39% after huge rate drop (CNBC)
- Private payrolls add 129K in March vs. 173K est.: ADP/Moodyâs Analytics (CNBC)
- Deutsche Bank downgrades Caterpillar ahead of negative backlog growth (TheFly)
- US Auto Sales Wrap Up Weak First Quarter (ZeroHedge)
- Boeing Keeps Leaving Trash In New Air Force Tankers; Deliveries Halted Again (Investor’s Business Daily)
- Bitcoin Rises 16%, Touching $5,000 in Asia ()
- If Trump closes Mexican border, avocados could cost more and auto factories could shut (USA Today)
Cocoa Update: up 7.5% sans leverage
Chart from: FinViz
Since our post on March 19, Cocoa is up 7.5% (underlying) excluding leverage. Could it have gone the other way? Of course, but the odds were in our favor – look at the data: Continue reading “Cocoa Update: up 7.5% sans leverage”
European (Stoxx 600) Earnings Estimates Q1
Data Source: Thomson Reuters
Despite mass pessimism on Europe, earnings estimates are more sanguine for the Stoxx 600 than the S&P 500 in the US. Q1 estimates for the Stoxx 600 are -1.6% year on year compared the the S&P 500 at -3.9% year on Continue reading “European (Stoxx 600) Earnings Estimates Q1”
Unusual Options Activity – Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB)
Today some institution/fund purchased 13,954 contracts of January 2020 $8 strike calls (or the right to buy 1,395,400 shares of Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB) at $8). The open interest was 7068 prior to this Continue reading “Unusual Options Activity – Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB)”
Insider Buying in EQT Corporation (EQT)
Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification
Be in the know. 6 key reads for Tuesday…
- Analysts expect China to cut bank reserve ratios soon (Reuters)
- Four solid stocks whose recent hard times mean they’re potential bargains (MarketWatch)
- Walgreens shares slide as drugstore chain misses earnings estimates, lowers 2019 forecast (CNBC)
- DealBook Briefing: Lyft Crashes Back to Reality (New York Times)
- U.S. and Chinese Manufacturing Stabilize, While Europe Lags Behind (Wall Street Journal)
- 50 Cent Sells Massive Connecticut Compound for 84% Less (i.e. 16 Cent) (Wall Street Journal)
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Unusual Options Activity – UBS Group AG (UBS)
Today some institution/fund purchased 9,482 contracts of August $12.50 strike calls (or the right to buy 948,200 shares of UBS Group AG (UBS) at $12.50). The open interest was just 1,191 prior to this purchase. Continue reading “Unusual Options Activity – UBS Group AG (UBS)”