Data Source (above): Factset
Q1 earnings estimates bumped up 20bps from -4.1% last week to -3.9% this week. The 12 mo. forward multiple has expanded to 16.8x which is above the 5yr average of 16.4x and the 10 year average of 14.7x
Continue reading “Q1 Earnings Estimates bump up again…is it enough for takeoff?”
Last week we got an extreme read on sentiment which is frequently correlated with market pullbacks:
Warning signs from AAII Sentiment Survey results this morning (out of “No Man’s Land”)
We are now a week later and have gone sideways off the trigger (no pullback yet). The implication is that we either turn soon, or it is going to burn through this extreme in an atypical fashion. Continue reading “AAII Sentiment Survey results. The pause that refreshes…”
Today some institution/fund purchased 6,412 contracts of May $11 strike calls (or the right to buy 641,200 shares of Range Resources Corporation (RRC) at $11). The open interest was just 818 prior to this purchase. Continue reading “Unusual Options Activity – Range Resources Corporation (RRC)”
Estimates for European Q1 earnings have dropped from -1.6% to -3.4% in the past 2 weeks. This puts Europe’s estimates modestly better than the U.S. – which are at -4.3% for Q1 as of Friday.
While this is a big drop, expectations and sentiment remain very low for the region – so with a normal beat rate of ~3% European earnings could come in ~flat year on year. This would exceed the current excessive pessimism in sentiment for the region.
Revenues will come in positive as a function of the weak Euro. The early beat rate is constructive. We’ll know more as the data/forward guidance comes in over the next few weeks.
